AvaRisk

avalanche risk calculation



AvaRisk package for MOBILE phones which helps calculate the avalanche risk factor according to Werner Munters reduction method.

The reduction method calculates the statistical risk of an avalanche occurring by taking multiple factors in account, such as the weather, the danger level of the avalanche bulletin and the behavior of the alpinist.

For more information please take a look at Wikipedia "Avalanche".

Reduction method - Werner Munter

I don't want to explain the reduction method here. But I can recommend a book written by Werner Munter: 3x3 Lawinen.
You can also find plenty of informative articles on the internet:

What's Important to note is that the Reduction method is based on statistical data collected in the European Alps and therefore is only useful in the Alps. Even when used there, the Reduction methods doesn't guaranty safety.

If you move in nature, you take the chance to get hurt or killed. Using AvaRisk you can only reduce this risk, not eleminate.

Prerequisites

Every modern java-enabled cellphone (at least MIDP 2.0) and current Blackberry models should be capable of running AvaRisk. I recommend a screen resolution of 128x128 or above, 250kB of phone memory and a color display.

But even if your phone or PDA meets the requirements, it can still happen that the software wan't run on it. In that (hopefully rare case), please drop me an email, stating the error and the phone manufacturer and model, if you know it: phone@avarisk.com.

You can test your cell phone or PDA, whether it is capable of running AvaRisk. Simply point your mobile device to following URL: http://wap.avarisk.com/test.php (Caution, your provider may charge you for that!).

Following models are tested successfully:

It is almost impossible, to test all available phones. So I will be glad to hear, when AvaRisk runs on your handset. Please report it to phone@avarisk.com.

Manual

Keyboard layout

Mobile phone usually don't have a PC-size keyboard. Hence the keys on the small keypad have multiple functions. Most phones have softkeys, which are located directly under the screen on the left and right hand side. Depending on the screen content, they have different functions. What function they exactly have, is written on the bottom bar.
On some phones these softkeys do not work. Instead you should try key "1" or "7" for left softkey and "3" or "9" for right softkey.
The fire key is named that way, because it is often used as the Fire-button in games. In AvaRisk it is used to open and close menus.
Using the arrow keys or "2", "6", "8" and "4" you can change the avalanche danger level and move between buttons or menu entries.



Start

Start This is the start screen. As soon, as AvaRisk is done loading, you can hit a button to proceed.

Disclaimer

Use at own risk To use AvaRisk you need to accept the disclaimer. Otherwise the program will exit.

Avalanche bulletin

Avalanche bulletin Please adjust the slider so that it will reflect the actual danger level (European avalanche hazard scale) for the region you are planning to go or already in. You need to get the valid danger level from an internet site (such as SLF), by phone or from other sources. AvaRisk cannot help you with that.
On the bar the danger potential is shown as defined by Werner Munter. Please don't mix it up with the danger level! The danger potential is 2 to the power of danger level and can be varied slightly depending on your personal opinion.
Munter defines the danger potential as follows:
Danger level danger potential
LOW (1) 2
MODERATE (2) 4
CONSIDERABLE (3) 8
HIGH (4) 16
VERY HIGH (5) 25
If you wanne make shure you choose the right potential, than you should always move the slider at least to the middle of an color area (green, yellow, orange, red or dark red).
Example: The avalanche bulletin says the danger level is "Moderate". Than you move the slider into the yellow area so that at least "4" is printed on the bar (see picture above).

Press "Continue" to proceed.

Environment

Environment On that screen you specify, whether the snow is wet or all slopes are dangerous, according to the avalanche bulletin.
Press "Continue" when ready to proceed. With "Back" you can switch to the previous screen.

Reduction factors

Now you can enter you reduction factors. Due to limited space on the screen, it is not distinguished between first, second and third class factors. But all reduction factors are there an can be used.
Reduction factors 1 This message is shown, when the danger level, you entered, is bigger than "moderat" and there is no reduction factor chosen for the maximum slope angle (first button).

Reduction factors 2 Here two buttons are disabled due to a choice on the previuos screen ("Wet snow" selected).

Reduction factors 3 And this message is presented to you, when you try to operate a disabled button.

Result

Result ok If you have chosen the reduction factors, the result of the calculation is shown in the top bar (only on large screens) or you press "Continue" and this screen shows the result.

Result not ok A result above "One" is shown together with the warning sign.

A value smaller or equal to "One" is (according to the Werner Munter) acceptable, whereas a result greater than "One" is unacceptable, hence "No go". Either you choose more or higher reduction factors until the risk is small enough or you stay at home.
Of course, it is important to stick to the reduction factors during the tour.